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Debt Exchange: Margin Trading is GDP Bonds

According to official statements, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States, have enabled the Argentine government to issue debt under American law. This would leave everything ready to reopen the exchange of debt still in default for a total of $ s20.000 million.

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recall that this new round of negotiations was launched in October 2009 when three international banks approached the Argentine government bid to reach an agreement for the debt on condition of Default. They claim to represent creditors with a holding of bonds in default for a total of U.S. $ 10,000 million, equivalent to 50% magnitude of Argentine bonds in that capacity.

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In essence, the provision means that banks now accept the terms of issue which were not accepted at the time when the debt exchange conducted in 2005.

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At that time the government offered three new shares (Par, Discount and Quasi), which at market prices all involved to accept about $ s30 per 100 nominal default. This time the offer is limited only to the Discount Bonds.

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But besides Bono and coupon GDP, banks also require the interest paid for both titles from 2005 to today, did not perceive the exchange as they fall at the time. In this way, at current market prices and supply means a value or $ s30 to other s55 U.S. dollars or $ 100 in default.

Banks agree that the recognition of non-cash interest, but by issuing a new bond in the short term. Argue that this would not only avoid an immediate disbursement by the Government, but also ensure supply does not improve against those who accepted the swap at its outset. That is, those who entered in 2005 and charged interests, while those entering at this stage would receive a new bond.

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Given that the defaulted bonds traded in recent years to $ s30 dollars, the proposal for banks to generate profits in excess of 83% when the exchange is realized, for those who were buying into debt market default. Simple, bought less than U.S. $ 30 and receive U.S. $ s55.

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The offer is so attractive to creditors largely explains why banks are committed to buy u $ s1.000 Argentina million of new debt to generate immediate cash to the Government but under the condition that does not change the proposal and to recognize all fallen interests, particularly the GDP Bonus.

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As an exercise, under the assumption of 100% acceptance in these circumstances, the $ s20.000 million today in default, be converted into U.S. $ s12.400 million, generating a flow of interest u $ s760 million annually, equivalent to 0.2% of GDP.

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In short, once you enable the SEC to issue, negotiations will focus on recognizing that the interests magnitude fallen since 2005 to present, in particular those of Bono GDP. It warned that without these, the supply would fall by $ s6, 2 and even then the bank bid $ 50 100 in default, also predicts a magnitude that high level of acceptance.

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Beginning the "via"

paquetón
brutal advantage of the snow on Peñalara, we have risen to try and prove some ice / some interesting runner. In the parking lot I found Diego and we have been talking for a while, I had to park quickly because they are beginning to see the rush of people that would come.

Leaving the highlight

Commenting plans without much problems began to take the road to the refuge Zabala, where we met some French assembling a top-rope to try one of the ways frost. We print to see how Blue was the limit, but we see that there are people inside, and does not go very fast. We also see the black wall is fully formed and quite thick.

black wall

Not to lose tomorrow, we turn to the foot of the shelter and tried a via zabala. Since we knew little, go down a little more and made the zabala channel, which has made conditions very well, without stringing. After that, collection of materials and down to parking, to meet people with chicken (and the civil guard fined!).

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The State Prosecutor and the payment of the debt, with or without

Monthly Economic Report - March 2010 (PDF version)

"The State Fiscal and Debt Repayment,

with or without Debt Relief Fund"

By Ramiro Castiñeira

The creation of the "Bicentenary Fund" by decree sparked a political and institutional crisis that has as its backdrop the Central Bank's independence.

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Apart from the details of the conflict, the recent repeal of the controversial decree by the new version fragmented in "Fund of Debt Relief " with the decree that enables payment to qualified organizations, also found the Government of the need to get enough votes in either house as to convert the first one in law.

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between the two orders provides the use of $ s6.500 million BCRA reserves to meet the debt payments in 2010. The amount represents 13.5% of the current stock of reserves, and is equivalent to 1 , 8% of GDP.

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The amount is not significant when one realizes the total foreign assets held by the BCRA, and a trade surplus that promises to double it in size. Furthermore, in this context, the qualified debt-reduction strategy to avoid refinancing with rates above 13% annually, is sound financially. However, its implementation is understood as an advance on the institutions, in addition to revealing the lack of credit as the primary surplus to meet debt payments.

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Indeed, the global economic recession which Argentina was no exception, with the drought that affected most of the country, shrugged substantial tax revenues to the state in 2009. This was coupled on an expansionary fiscal policy that sought promptly mitigate the impact of the crisis on the level of activity. Lower income and higher spending combined to pass a primary surplus of 2.7% of GDP in 2008, a deficit of 0.4% of GDP in 2009.

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In 2010 the world economic cycle is reversed underpinned by fiscal and monetary stimulus in the U.S., China and Europe. At the local level is compounded by the fiscal stimulus itself, the recovery of harvest levels and a reduced outflow from the economy. The context of economic recovery will help the Government rebuild much of the tax revenue lost in the bottom of the cycle. However, a higher tax does not necessarily entail an increase in the fiscal surplus as the rate at which spending evolves, even the worst of the crisis.

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In sum, this report seeks to make an analysis of fiscal and financial situation of the national government, in order to estimate which are not only financing needs this year, but also the economic impact depending on the different paths that take to address them, with or without the 'Debt Relief Fund. "

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