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He Million in 2009 Fiscal Deficit

By Ramiro Castiñeira

.

Last week the Government announced that the fiscal outcome in November reached a primary surplus of $ 2.802 million, even without considering the income from the SDR of the IMF, the fiscal outcome would lead to a primary deficit of $ 1,200 million in the period.

Moreover, the deterioration of public accounts will double if not considering the $ 1,100 million monthly contributions from the former Pension Funds.

Similarly, comparing the first 11 months reflects the total public sector revenue increased by 13% over the same period last year. Even subtracting the proceeds of the SDR's as the former Pension Funds, tax revenues would have increased only 4.7% compared to 2008, remaining in positive territory just because of inflation.

Needless to say, it could hardly sustain the fiscal surplus in a year when tax revenues fall to a local and international economic recession, coupled with a poor harvest. That is beyond discussion. In fact, just trying to do so would be counterproductive.

But it warned that the government lost most of the fiscal surplus (3% of GDP in 2008), more by increasing public spending by lower tax revenues. Increased public expenditure was 29% for the full year, a magnitude that is almost twice the estimated inflation for the period.

While it may be understood as a countercyclical policy to mitigate the deterioration of economic activity, so is that the pace of public spending can not be sustained over time. Something that becomes worrisome when even clear warning signs of economic rebound international and local public spending in November rose 37% year-magnitude well above the annual average, making it clear that does not stop his drive on the level of activity.

Although the Government no longer has the resources to ensure payment of public debt in time with full independence of the financial markets, the default scenario is not yet on the horizon as the government needs only 2.3% of GDP for the payment of interest and principal in 2010 ( intra net public sector debt), of which half are in pesos and the rest have hefty reserves.

Now if the Government is set to restore the fiscal surplus target, the situation is moving well financed with more debt (as in the '70s and '90s), or to fund the State inflation, as in previous decades. Two hundred years of history showed that in both cases never ending.

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The "Fund Bicentennial "does not jeopardize the Currency. The fiscal deficit itself.

By Ramiro Castiñeira

.

Only a handful of countries have achieved currency without backing of foreign assets. Extreme example of this is U.S. with a currency backed solely by their own government debt. For other countries, mainly for emerging, so that society can gain confidence in its currency, the Central Bank needs to show not only that has a floor of foreign assets to support it, but it will not finance the commitment to free government.

There is no "rule" to know which is the optimal level of foreign assets to generate confidence in the currency. While the rule of "free reserves" or convertibility own time, are examples of trying to establish that floor, history shows that this does not guarantee the value of the currency. It may support the monetary base, something radically different to support the currency, or the broader monetary aggregates.

This reflects that the deterioration or strength of a currency does not come from the stocks that support, but by flows of the economy.

For example, economic science is evidence that a persistent surplus in the current account of balance of payments (flows) to build pressure for currency appreciation, regardless of the stock of reserves available to the Central Bank. Conversely, the deficit will act to push for a depreciation of the currency.

.

Similarly, monetizing it is known that chronic fiscal deficit, ie red issued to finance the Treasury (flow), to build pressure for a devaluation of local currency, with the most money in circulation and the same generation value.

Warned of this, money is not put at risk by the creation of the Bicentennial Fund, but for the loss of government's fiscal surplus in a context where no access to credit in sufficient quantity and price to be independent of BCRA.

Pay the maturity of public debt with reserves virtually unaccountable interest before maturity to refinance an interest rate above 10% per year, not a bad decision financially if seeks to leverage the international situation of zero interest rates. The National State as a whole will save u $ s650 million annually in interest on a net basis (= 6500 * 0.10), without changing his assets (liabilities canceled Debt-to-asset-stocks-).

Now it is a fact that the Government and no income to cover their operating expenses, which has financed using Central Bank reserves, not only to pay down debt, but also to finance current operations. That's where the risks lie ahead.

with stock finance current expenditure (whether qualified as now, or selling as the Convertibility YPF) are short-term solutions that do not address the underlying problem is in deficit, the true source of impairment value of the currency.

Do I Need A Ski Jacket?

RC and career profile

Yesterday I ran the 6 th edition of the San Silvestre de Cercedilla. A classic! This year there was snow, but because the ice had to remove a couple of kilometers, which meant that the race had a distance of about 12 km approximately. Great atmosphere, very cold (below zero at the start) but like every year, great. My data

this year 178 1577 of participants, with a time of 1:00:49 making about 5:18 min / km . What is clear is that next year, repeat.

Entering goal.

Ratings: runners in and local

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GESA wishes

Red Itchy Swollen Eye Feels Stingy

Social and Fiscal Impact of New Family Allowance

Monthly Report - December 2009 (PDF version).

"The Fiscal and Social Impact of New Family Allowance"

By Ramiro Castiñeira

.

.

.

own initiative or an advance on the agenda of the opposition, the fact is that the Government announced the plan for "Universal Family Allowances." The measure seeks to extend the benefit of the family allowance the State seeks to all registered workers, workers now also working in the informal economy or unemployed.

family currently has a maximum allocation of $ 180 per month for each child under 18 by the worker. The system covers 4.3 million children, at an annual cost close to $ 10,000 million, equivalent to 0.8% of GDP. However, the population under 18 years in Argentina more than 12.4 million, which implies that the current social security system covers only 35% of age group.

The remaining 65% (equivalent to 8.1 million children) do not enter the benefit either because their parents working in the informal economy or are unemployed, or at the other end and being at least, do not access for being registered by workers with salaries over $ 4,800. Neither access when not under dependency ratio be monotributistas, self, professional, and pattern.

In this universe of 8.1 million children, it is clear that the government established new requirements for targeting the household allowance only to the most vulnerable children. With this aim requires a certificate attesting that the child is current with the national vaccination schedule and for more than five years of age also require a certificate of regular attendance at public educational establishments. But even meeting these requirements only Parents will have access to working in the informal economy, have incomes below the minimum wage.

demands tend to focus assistance to poor households while granting financial incentives for health care and education of children in vulnerable households. But the truth is that it also carries a horizontal discrimination because the worker does not operate such registration requirements, while the monthly income ceiling to qualify for the benefit is more than three times the minimum wage.

In sum, there is now a social consensus on the need to give a response from the State children under 18. But the differences are minor and do not as a support point to a universally without any condition, while others point to grant a subsidy to enable more targeted to attend only the most vulnerable children, noting the presence of a budget constraint in the State.

This report aims to deepen the analysis. To do this, we first present a picture of the situation in Argentina social structure. Then continue with an analysis of current social assistance programs that have state the explicit goal of alleviating poverty in households with children. Finally, there will be a analysis of the recent program launched by the Government, as also estimate the number of households and children who are favored by the new universal allocation, as well as their fiscal cost and form of financing.

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Climate Change. The meeting in Copenhagen

Special Report No. 408 (PDF Version)


.


"Climate Change. The UN meeting in Copenhagen and the challenges for Argentina"

For Alieto Guadagni

Free Member Section Doujin Moe

Reopening of Debt: A first analysis

Special Report No. 407 (PDF version)

"Reopening of Debt,

A first analysis"

By Ramiro Castiñeira

.
.

Last week the government announced the reopening of the public debt-default status which has now reached U.S. $ s20.000 million. In his presentation The government said he could not give details of the proposal until the Security and Exchange Commission of the United States (SEC) approved the transaction to enable Argentina to issue debt under American law.

But with the passage of time and details have leaked the offer that would have introduced three international banks to the Government opened a new round of negotiations. Despite the lack of official information by legal constraints in Econometric SA we felt that the rumors that are circulating unofficially on the market are careful enough to be analyzed to gain a first approximation what could be the proposal to reopen the debt swap. As more information becomes available, we will update our analysis in future reports.

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FACING THE NEXT GOVERNMENT POLITICAL COST

Special Report No. 406 (PDF version)

NEXT government faces

The political cost FISCAL

By Mario Brodersohn

The aim of this study is to compare the level and composition of public expenditure and the structure of the tax system in 1999 to 2009. This comparison is intended to draw conclusions about the structural changes that occurred in the tax field between two models of very different economic policy together.

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FISCAL 2010: No Fiscal Surplus and Debt Problems

Monthly Report - October 2009 (pdf)

.

"2010: No Fiscal Surplus

or Debt Problems"

By Ramiro Castiñeira

.

No room for Lehman Brother and other active policies that led the Fed to double the monetary base, and the Treasury to increase the public debt from 65 to 90% of GDP, the fact is that managed the expectations of the markets not only leave behind the worst scenarios that could arise from the international financial crisis, but even now expects a strong rebound in U.S. economy by 2010. This scenario not only consolidated but extends to the world as reflected in the IMF's own projections.

Argentina, the IMF would have fallen by 2.5% in 2009 due to the impact of the external crisis itself, but also by internal factors that fostered effect. Among them, a smaller crop due to weather, and a large outflow of private capital at the macroeconomic deterioration in general but of particular tax result, which questioned the ability to pay its debt to the lack of access to credit and which resulted in the nationalization of the administrators.

However, in line with the rest of the world the level of local economic activity stopped falling for the second quarter of this year and even the local financial assets also began to cut losses.

This scenario took more strength in the third quarter of the year when the government began to show "ready" to restore relations with the IMF, in addition to resume negotiations defaulted debt with the Paris Club and with the holdouts.
Best external environment and the possibility of Argentina's return to debt markets underlie the shift in expectations on the local macroeconomics, which resulted in a major disincentive to private capital outflow in recent months.

However, this bias that shows the government to regain access to markets respond to fiscal weakness is the striking feature also 2010. If it fails to cast doubt on the ability and willingness to pay government debt next year, the truth is that sustainability is lost longer term and independence of the markets that gave the bulky primary surplus.

Access to credit would not only avoid the need for fiscal adjustment and / or abuse of the tax to inflation, but also have financial back beyond 2010.

In sum, this report will attempt to trace the economic scenario of 2010, taking as input an external environment that focuses on the end (or break) of the international financial crisis. To do this, first examine the external front to estimate the supply of dollars into the economy in anticipation of a good harvest in 2010, before going on fiscal front, with emphasis on the profile maturity of public debt and its financing sources. Also contemplate the fiscal impact of a possible renegotiation of the debt in default.

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This is not mea

chipionense

Message

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VLC from your mobile

VLC (VideoLAN) is the best video player. And

VLC Remote is a remote control for mobile Super Android . Great if you get it to work. Things to consider:
must have a version of VLC over the 1

in the file. Hosts (on Windows at C: \\ Program Files \\ VideoLAN \\ VLC \\ http) must give permission to access IP to your phone. To do this simply write that IP anywhere in the file
must run vlc from the command line with this command: vlc - extraintf = http - fullscreen - http-album-art - qt-start- minimized
Of course, configuring firewalls, proxies, etc.
And if you can not get VLC Remote login, you can always use your mobile web browser to connect to port 8080 of the computer on which you started VLC (with instruction stating above) and control it via the web interface.

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Your laughter (Neruda) Breaking

Quítame bread, if you wish, take air but I

your laughter.

not take away the rose, the lance
pluck,
the
water that suddenly bursts forth in joy,

the sudden wave of silver born in you.

My struggle is harsh and I come back with eyes tired

to
times from having seen the unchanging earth,
but when your laughter rises to the sky seeking

and
opens for me all the doors of life.

My love, in the darkest hours

your laughter, and if suddenly
see my blood staining the stones
street
laugh, because your laughter

be for my hands like a fresh sword. Seaside

fall,

your laughter must raise its foamy cascade,
and spring, love,

want your laughter like the flower I was waiting,
the blue flower, the rose of my echoing country
. Laugh

night
day, of the moon, laugh
tordicas
streets of the island,

laugh at this clumsy boy who loves you,

but when I open my eyes and close them,
when my steps go, when my steps return
,
deny me bread, air, light
, spring,

but never your laughter for I would die. Pablo Neruda

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internet I18N

Ignoring the well-known-and-exercise futile search for "google" on Google to break the Internet. I say futile because in an act of reckless arrogance did and there was nothing of what was promised.

say that ignoring this unfortunate exercise there are other methods to break the Internet. The first I can think of is to set up two email accounts so that all email is forwarded each received. So, after sending the first message that laconically call "message zero", the internet has necessarily breaking.

A refinement of this weapon (which today certainly be considered of mass destruction) is to set up a group of accounts that forward to all the others. Thus, an exponential growth will cause the demise of the Internet in less than logarithmic time.

This theoretical approach, I must admit, I have not been implemented. I find it difficult not to imagine the press the button that sends the message to cyberspace zero. Minutes later, my browser would display an error message "499 Internet broken" and a couple of hours later hear the helicopter blades from FBI agents who descolgarían kevlar encased in armor that will pass through my windows and I would point to their archaic weapons kinetics.

you are warned.

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Colacao

Oh, oh, oh ... Are you going to burst? ... Well, I'm like the fucking bomb when it exploded bastard! Every time my fingers typed I18N'm superfly TNT, I'm the guns of Navarrone! In fact "What the fuck I'm doing? The bastard that means you would have to be you! Changing dammit! I program and you focus on internationalizing this shit!

paraphrase Jules Winnfield

How Long Before A Trip Should You Tan

patient trainers workshop (2 nd part).


Yesterday June 29 was carried out in the Health Center of La Candelaria de Sevilla the second part of the first Training of Trainers workshop conducted in collaboration with the School of patients, following the meeting held on May 5 (the eve of World Asthma Day.) Interestingly yesterday was the eve of World No snuff (30th June) that reminds us of the risks involved in snuff for the health of all, smokers and those who breathe the smoke of fumaodres.
The completion of this workshop is part of the activities of the School of patients, a project developed by the Ministry of Health in collaboration with the Andalusian School of Public Health (EASP), which aims to educate patients to provide them with skills play their training to other users, with the added value of their own experience to experience firsthand the disease.
If the first session we had a meeting which dominated the exchange of ideas on what issues should be addressed in the teaching of asthma, in this second session suggested learning strategies for adolescents are able to successfully transmit knowledge to other colleagues.
materials were used GESA our group has developed asthma classroom in collaboration with the School of patients. A workshop attendees were given an information guide on asthma, information and advice supervised and validated by our group. They were shown how useful it is as supporting material to clarify the doubts in their future activities as teachers of other young and searched his hand some answers (already knew) for clarification.
The opinion of everyone at the end of the ceremony is that you had fun and some things we already knew, understood it better. In short there is great satisfaction in all and most importantly, Rocío, Paul, Sara, Arturo and Francisco Javier who have been attending the first workshop in Seville, have expressed interest in sharing their experience with other kids their schools and colleges for next year 2009-2010.

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The chilly trick in a nightclub cani

If you are someone who does not know how to prepare a chilly Colacao because cocoa does not dissolve well in cold milk and is white with brown lumps. If you are someone who has thought about switching to Colacao turbo or "God give me strength-to Nesquik. If you are someone who has lost all hope, look closely at the picture show because she is the trick. Preparing a chilly Colacao in five easy steps:

Pour desired amount into the glass

Colacao

1. Add a small amount of milk. As little as there should be more cacao than milk. Seriously, this is the trick, trust me.


2. Stir until it forms a paste unsightly (see photo). At this point all the cocoa powder should be dissolved.


3. Add the remaining milk

remove
4. Finish


5. Sure.

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Sports activities for the summer of 2009

In the summer we have the opportunity to make more sport, as classes are over. Sigueintes But questions arise: where can sporting activities?, is there outdoor activities that can be done in a safe environment, if you have asthma? Can we learn more about asthma in summer sports as well?

The answer to all these questions is yes: In the service of Allergy Virgen del Rocío Hospital for many years organized a camp for boys and girls with asthma where various leisure activities in a safe environment medical monitors and ready. If you register you can download the registration form which gives the information needed Boletin_campamento_2009 . We

that this information will serve and enjoy the camp.

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The power of patient associations

Patients' associations are gradually increasing in Spain, but their number is still far from those in the rest of Western Europe. They demand better care for their illnesses by health systems and society. Given the complexity of different diseases and patient needs, gather around his illness to establish an optimal strategy and achieve greater efficiency of effort. Meetings and conferences are an opportunity PAPR patients enhances knowledge, discuss their needs and role of these, refocus the objectives of the partnerships.

We got information that will be held in Rome (Italy), for 12 to June 13, 2009 the 13th Conference European Federation of Associations of Patients with Allergic Diseases and Respiratory (EFA) place where interesting lectures on asthma, the interest of the partnership, multidisciplinary networks on asthma, patient education, training by the patients themselves, funding needs for devices, etc ... The program has a link to the web and can be downloaded by clicking on this link program.
We hope it is useful to patients and representatives of associations who want to attend.

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Video educational workshop on asthma

In this video we have developed in the project Asthma, Sport show you two attitudes that can make a person with asthma. Reject asthma and forget about it or accept it and live with it.

Think about yourself and what attitude you have against asthma in the first case, if you reject and abandon you find yourself faced with all the constraints and asthma end up controlling your life. In the second case if you know you will be with you, put in place all appropriate measures:
1 - Avoidance of triggers (snuff, allergies and cold) and
2 - Taking preventive medication. Thus
live like any other person without asthma

If you have asthma, envisions this video and think about who controls who and take a positive attitude LIVE A FULL AND HEALTHY LIFE WITHOUT WAIVING YOUR FAVORITE SPORT
Our project
Group Asthma Education and Health (GESA) is developed in schools and colleges and this video shows used to be discussed at the last class attitudes to asthma. We believe that this video be of interest to all those who have a teen with asthma and may be viewing at home to discuss


For websites interested in this video: you can link this video, but I thank you link a link to our web GESA and our blog Asthma, Sport

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First School of patients

Today May 4, 2009, as part of preparatory activities World Asthma Day (to be held tomorrow, May 5) was held at the Center for Health Candelaria de Sevilla and the Central Base 061 de Huelva, the first two workshops for training trainers, with boys and girls from 12 to 15 years of age. These teens have shared their experiences with their Monitors Patients School. These events have helped Sevilla, members of GESA Huelva and the association of asthma and allergy (Asmal), which is an association of active patients and has organized many other activities for its members. In the near future new shops will be announced with which purport to have well trained a group of boys and girls with asthma who want to share their knowledge and experience of asthma with others their age in schools, colleges, associations and centers health.

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New material for patient education

Group Asthma Education and health GESA in collaboration with the School of Patients is an initiative of the Andalusian School of Public Health (EASP) has developed a support material for use of asthma education and peer training for young people with asthma who want to help other young people who also have asthma. This material consists of a series of videos to aid the classes that you can download the video library and a support book for teens titled consulting my asthma and me, you can find in the area documents that you already can download by clicking on its link. People, health centers or schools located in Andalusia, who are interested in putting up these activities can get in touch with the School of patients where scheduled activities or with us at this very blog on the official website of GESA. Patients from school and all training will be provided a methodology to make a success of peer education as a tool for improving quality of life of our / as adolescents with asthma.

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Our Group Promotes World Asthma Day

5 May, World Asthma Day IN 2009

World Asthma Day 2009, held the first Tuesday of every May, is sponsored by the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA), and will be held on May 5, 2009 as an initiative to raise awareness of the burdens of disease to the sufferer and the possibility of having it under control, leading a healthy life without limitations. In fact, the theme of World Asthma Day 2009 "You Can Control Your Asthma" is the same as that proposed for the two previous years, because it translates the result to establish appropriate strategies to be undertaken: Develop

• good cooperation patients with their doctors
• Identify and reduce exposure to risk factors
• assess, treat and monitor asthma managed to Know
• an asthma

Thus it is considered that a person has controlled asthma when:

1. not have asthma symptoms like coughing in the morning or running
2. can sleep without waking.
3. not need medication relief.
4. has no asthma attack.
5. can do all the sports and leisure time you want.

The message we give to patients is that "to achieve asthma control you"

1. have a written individualized treatment for your asthma
2. Take medications prescribed by your doctor.
3. Know and avoid things that can trigger asthma attacks.
4. Learn to recognize the symptoms of an asthma attack.
5. know what to do in an asthma attack.

Our group is trying to get this message through educational activities that take place in our package eduativo Asthma, Sport and Health.

can download a PDF document prepared by the Airways Group (GVR) to document the AEPap the 5 steps of asthma, omo GVR promoting http://www.aepap.org/gvr/

http://www.aepap.org/gvr/pdf/dma_2009.pdf

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Expansion of primary education project

Again we set out to extend our training program for primary education. It will propose a total of 100 primary schools in our program incorporation ASTHMA, SPORT AND HEALTH. To this end the school Consel must sign the approval of your participation.

The participating school will receive an interactive education about asthma, how to control and how to perform a full life without limitations. This will teach them through videos animations and everything related to asthma care and the participating teachers will have the tools and knowledge to provide students with asthma a safer environment.

If you belong to a school in Seville and are interested in participating in our project please contact us (mpraenac@gmail.com). Begin with students in grades 5 and 6 primary school

Sunflowersdecorations

Yes, a vending machine that sells towels and cigarette paper. At a nightclub cani, by supuesto.Click on photos to see them larger.

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"When I was offered the film producers were very clear that they admitted they did not understand 300, but had made money as they thought it was the right director."

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REFLECTION ON THE ATTENTION TO STUDENTS WITH ASTHMA SCHOOLS

Knowing that for every 10 students, one of them has asthma activity (symptoms) should include that in his class of 25-30 students may have two or three asthmatics. If your school or college there are about 1000 students, about 100 have asthma symptoms during the curso.Piense for a moment that a student, you already know you have asthma, any of the symptoms of asthma (coughing, wheezing, slight difficulty in breathing) and also tells him is wrong. Think about what would be their attitude in this case:

1. It is a problem that should not go, being only in the health field.

2. As a student who often gets hit for doing the activities, he insist that try to go a bit further and while to see if it passes.

3. I would advise you to leave your business, call the family and while the student would address in counseling or educational center, not disrupting the class.

4. Would facilitate relief medication to take her, whether it brings and if the call comes to your family, because we do not have the educational center of it.

5. Would give a dose of reliever medication for asthma, we have in the medicine cabinet or nursing center for these cases and call the family.

6. Will help address the crisis, assessing their improvement in next 15-20 minutes, call emergency, in case you do not respond to treatment, to receive adequate assistance. Also tell it to the family

7. Besides helping to relieve asthma attacks and assess how things have been likely to cause symptoms in school, would seek to talk with the family to inform of their asthma and if you are under medical supervision.

8. I would not stay there only because I worry that there was something in the college or school that might be affected, to eliminate it if possible, creating a healthy school environment.

9. Besides the above I would ask the mother a report from your doctor stating what things are harmful and what treatment is doing and if new symptoms of asthma, you should take. Would write down everything in your health record.

10. Besides the above, seek information on asthma to discuss this problem in class, trying to integrate students with asthma with all partners to they do not feel discriminated against and promote healthy behaviors in all.

As you can see, there are a multitude of nuances when dealing with asthma in the educational environment of students. Between indifference and, ideally, there are a variety of possible action against asthma in schools. The degree of involvement may influence a variety of reasons: concern for intervening in a disease is not known, the experience you have, the family have asthma or suffer from the support of the administration, etc. Ideally, asthma, being so prevalent in our school population, receive attention as homogeneous as possible, as intended with the training provided in schools and sports institutos.El asthma and health program of the Health and Education Group Asthma (GESA) http://grupo.us.es/asmaydeporte/Index.html is an attempt to improve integration and quality of life of students with asthma with peers, support through knowledge, treatment guidelines and methodology of teaching to the school and teachers to do so.