Globby Cervical Mucus Before Period Due

In January accumulate four months without outflows.

By Ramiro Castiñeira

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Despite the conflict that sparked the creation of "Bicentennial Fund" , it did not generate a significant increase in private capital outflows, which remains at levels close to zero from October of 2009, after u $ s1.800 million average per month for just over two consecutive years.

Indeed, it is apparent not only remembering the fourth quarter of 2009 was the first quarter without capital outflow since March 2007, but the magnitude of exchange market intervention by the Central Bank in the first month of the year, which accounted for purchases totaling U.S. $ s922 million.

In particular, the last week of January the Central Bank bought U.S. $ S163 million, slightly below the pace of purchases of the previous three weeks, close to the $ s253 million a week. Despite the slight drop in the pace of purchases in the last week of the month, the Central Bank accumulated trade balance would be similar to that estimated for the first month of the year (closer to the $ s1.000 million), implying that the Central Bank bought almost all the trade surplus for the period.

The trade balance is the main "cushion" macro that prevented the loss BCRA reserves at the continuing outflow of private capital which totaled more than $ s46.000 million between 2007 and 2009. Put another way, the trade balance had gone to finance economic growth to finance capital outflows, at least until last October.

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Since then, the best international environment, coupled with the expectation of a good harvest and upcoming renegotiation of public debt were the main factors that allowed reverse expectations for 2010 and consequently slow the steady output private capital. This despite the disappearance of the fiscal surplus in 2009, the other pillar of the post macroeconomic convertibility.

So far, the conflict that erupted after the creation of "Bicentennial Fund" while increased uncertainty, did not result in increased capital flight, possibly because so far foiled the imminent redemption of debt in default (even if you already delayed) .

other words, operators are more expectantly to the future of the exchange of debt, that the future of "Bicentennial Fund."